Uranium processing

Uranium processing is the recipe performed in Centrifuges that converts Uranium ore into the isotopes Uranium-235 and Uranium-238. Unlike most production recipes, Uranium processing yields these isotopes probabilistically rather than in fixed quantities: each processing cycle has a 0.7% (p = 0.007) chance to produce a unit of Uranium-235, with the remainder producing Uranium-238.

Because Uranium-235 is relatively rare in each cycle, obtaining the 40 units required to start the Kovarex enrichment process typically requires large numbers of processing cycles and raw ore. The expected number of cycles to obtain a single Uranium-235 is E(1,p) = 1 / p, which is approximately 143 cycles. The linear expectation for 40 units is 40 × E(1,p), which is about 5,714 processing cycles. Producing that many cycles consumes a large quantity of Uranium ore; at the usual processing yield this corresponds to approximately 57,140 units of Uranium ore mined.

The probabilistic nature of Uranium processing means expectations do not guarantee outcomes. Mathematically, running 5,714 cycles yields at least 40 units of Uranium-235 with a probability of roughly 52%; therefore a player may need substantially more cycles (and ore) to be certain of gathering 40 units for Kovarex enrichment.

• Each Uranium processing cycle is performed in a Centrifuge and has an independent 0.7% chance to produce Uranium-235.
• Expect to process on the order of thousands of cycles — tens of thousands of Uranium ore — before reliably obtaining 40 Uranium-235.
• Because the Kovarex enrichment process requires exactly 40 Uranium-235 to start, plan mining and Centrifuge throughput accordingly and allow for variance above the expected amount.
• Treat Uranium-235 acquisition as a long-term supply problem; consider scaling ore mining and Centrifuge count rather than relying on a small setup to reach Kovarex thresholds quickly.